In recent years, shared-use vehicle systems have garnered a great deal of interest and activity internationally as an innovative mobility solution. In general, shared-use vehicle systems consist of a fleet of vehicles that are used by several different individuals throughout the day. Shared-use vehicles off the convenience of the private automobile and more flexibility than public transportation alone. These systems are attractive since they offer the potential to lower a user’s transportation costs; reduce the need for parking spaces in a community; improve overall air quality; and facilitate access to and encourage use of other transportation modes such as rail transit. Shared-use vehicle systems take many forms, ranging from neighborhood carsharing to classic station car models. Given the recent proliferation in system approaches, it is useful to establish a classification system or framework for characterizing these programs. The classification system presented here...

The automobile accounts for more than 95 percent of all person miles traveled in the United States, whereas transit accounts for less than 3 percent of all trips. Between the private automobile and traditional transit, niche markets exist for other transportation services, such as airport and transit feeder shuttles and carsharing. Commuter-based carsharing, by which individuals share a fleet of vehicles linked to transit, could potentially fill and expand one such niche; complement existing services, mainly transit and feeder shuttles; and develop into a viable transportation alternative. A brief overview is presented of transit feeder services, particularly in Northern California. The CarLink I field test is described—a commuter-based carsharing model developed and tested in the San Francisco Bay Area in 1999. Key behavioral findings arte highlighted. Recommendations are made for strengthening the viability of this innovative service, mainly on the basis of experience from...

AVCEM is an electric and gasoline vehicle energy-use and lifetime-cost model. AVCEM designs a motor vehicle to meet range and performance requirements specified by the modeler, and then calculates the initial retail cost and total private and social lifetime cost of the designed vehicle. It can be used to investigate the relationship between the lifetime cost – the total cost of vehicle ownership and operation over the life of the vehicle – and important parameters in the design and use of the vehicle.

There are three major parts to AVCEM and the AVCEM documentation:

* the model of vehicle cost and weight * the model of vehicle energy use * periodic ownership and operating costs.

The model of vehicle cost and weight consists of a model of manufacturing cost and weight, and a model of all of the other costs – division costs, corporate costs, and dealer costs – that compose the total retail cost. The manufacturing cost is the materials and labor cost...

In the past two years, the Federal and California State governments have announced initiatives to invest in the development of hydrogen fueling infrastructure for hydrogen vehicles. Industry and government are now working together to determine cost-effective strategies for accomplishing this task. Key concerns are 1) high hydrogen cost, 2) equipment under-utilization while vehicle demand is low, and 3) high fuel cell costs when production volumes are low. A new infrastructure option is emerging (in the RD&D phase) that addresses these concerns by combining stationary power production with vehicle fueling. This new option of "energy stations" (E-Stations) could have significant implications for traditional fueling paradigms since these stations link vehicle-fueling facilities to stationary power production sites.

This paper explores the potential use of E-Stations for hydrogen infrastructure development and potential implications for the transportation sector. It characterizes...

This paper presents the evaluation of the commute travel effects of the first transit-based smart parking project in the U.S. at the Rockridge Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) District station in Oakland, California. The following are key findings from the analysis of participant survey travel results: 1) sizable increases in BART mode share (an average increase of 5.5 and 4.0 more BART trips per month for on-site and off-site commutes, respectively); 2) reductions in drive alone modal share (30.8 and 56%, across frequencies, would have driven to on-site and off-site work locations, respectively, without smart parking); 3) decreased average commute time (47.5 minutes using smart parking and BART compared to in 50.1 minutes without smart parking); and 4) reduction in total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) (on average, 9.7 fewer VMT per participant per month).

In recent years there has been significant worldwide activity in shared-use vehicle systems (i.e., carsharing and station cars). Much of this activity is taking place in Europe and North America; however, there has also been significant activity in Asia, primarily in Japan and Singapore. This paper examines the latest shared-use vehicle system activities in both of these countries, beginning with an historical review followed by an evaluation of their current systems. Overall there are several well-established systems in both Japan (approximately 18 systems, 150 vehicles, 3000 members) and Singapore (approximately 4 systems, 300 vehicles, and 8000 members). In contrast to most European and North American cities, both Japan and Singapore already have a wide range of viable public transportation modes. Interestingly, the primary carsharing focus in Japan is on business use and on neighborhood residential in Singapore. This is likely due to limited vehicle licensing and high car...

Prepared for the National Hydrogen Association Annual Hydrogen Conference (NHA 2005), Washington, DC, March 29 - April 1, 2005

Although reliability has not been evaluated for hydrogen energy systems, it is often assessed in other energy sectors. We investigated methods used to assess reliability in existing energy systems (specifically the electricity, natural gas, and petroleum sectors), and tailored these to form a suitable assessment methodology for hydrogen systems. Here we provide a brief background about some of these methods. Energy system reliability measures are broadly categorized according two general concepts: adequacy and security.

With recent economic, political, and social events worldwide, reliability in the energy sector is growing more valuable, and the surrounding issues are gaining visibility. Increasingly, concerns about energy supply security (and climate change) have led to proposals to shift away from oil dependence to wide use of alternative transportation fuels, such as biofuels or hydrogen. Hydrogen is of particular interest because it offers multiple societal benefits. It is often asserted that hydrogen would enhance energy reliability because it can be made at diverse scales from many primary resources. But no studies have systematically assessed reliability. There are many questions surrounding energy system reliability – especially when considering a future fuel like hydrogen. How should reliability be defined and evaluated? And would a transition to hydrogen increase or decrease reliability? This paper presents a general method to assess reliability in energy supply systems. The technique...

General. This report provide an overview of basic assumptions and general results for all of the fuel, feedstock, and light-duty vehicle combinations treated in the LEM, and somewhat more detailed results and discussions for the longer-term advanced options, including compressed or liquefied hydrogen from natural gas, compressed or liquefied hydrogen from water via electrolysis, and liquid biofuels developed from wood, grass, or corn. It considers fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCVs) as well as internal-combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs).

Target years. The LEM has the capability of modeling lifecycle environmental impacts in any target year from 1970 to 2050. For this analysis we have estimated results for the near term (2010) and the long term (2050). (We originally proposed to run the LEM for three dates, 2005, 2020, and 2050, but for three reasons have modeled 2010 and 2050 instead: there is not enough difference between 2005 and 2020 to warrant separate runs; having...

The Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, one of the most daring environmental policies related to transportation, was implemented in September, 1990, by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). It originally required that, starting in 1998, 2% of the in-state new light duty vehicle sales of major automakers had no emissions of criteria pollutants. The required ZEV percentage would be increased to 5% in 2001 and to 10% in 2003. CARB organized biennial reviews of the programs, to elicit stakeholder participation and monitor the evolution of the program. Through this review schedule, the program underwent several revisions resulting from intense policy debates.

This dissertation research is concerned with the study of the policy process over the ZEV mandate, from its conception, through its inception, and the biennial reviews, until 2004. The study is structured as three core chapters. The first chapter studies the origin of the ZEV mandate, trying to understand the conditions...

Proceedings of the National Hydrogen Association Annual Hydrogen Conference (NHA 2005), Washington, DC, March 29 - April 1, 2005

Hydrogen offers a wide range of future environmental and social benefits, when used as a fuel for applications such as light duty vehicles and stationary power. These potential benefits include significant or complete reductions in point-of-use criteria emissions, lower life-cycle CO2 emissions, higher end-use and life-cycle efficiency, and a shift (with respect to transportation fuels) to a range of widely available feedstocks. Despite the potential benefits of a hydrogen economy, there are many challenges as well. One of the most critical is the tremendous cost and investment associated with developing and transitioning to an extensive transportation network based upon hydrogen. The widely-discussed "chicken and egg" problem focuses on the difficulty in building vehicles and hydrogen supply to meet a small and growing demand. While many current...

There is growing interest in hydrogen as a transportation fuel in California. Plans are underway to construct a �Hydrogen Highway� network of stations across the state to stimulate fuel cell vehicle deployment. One of the key challenges however in the planning and financing of this network is determining the costs of the stations. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the near-term costs of building stations and answer the fundamental question, �how much would new hydrogen stations cost now?� The costs for seven different station types are analyzed with respect to size, siting factors, and operating factors. The first chapter of the thesis reviews the existing body of knowledge on hydrogen station costs. In the second chapter, I present hydrogen station cost data in a database, the Compendium of Hydrogen Refueling Equipment Costs (CHREC), created to organize and analyze data collected from equipment suppliers, existing stations and literature. The third chapter of the report...

On April 5, 2005, a voluntary agreement between the automobile industry and government officials of Canada was reached to commit to greenhouse gas emission reductions through the year 2010. This report compares Canada's voluntary agreement with other voluntary and mandatory greenhouse gas reduction programs around the world in terms of what technologies are likely to be deployed and how much vehicle fuel consumption is likely to improve. It investigates various methods and measurement approaches for implementing the agreement, incorporating the potential effects of criteria pollutant emission reductions, fuel use modifications (including the effects of lower sulfur fuels and ethanol), and vehicle technology adoption (including mobile air conditioning systems). The findings of this study suggest that the decisions of the official MOU oversight committee on how to credit various existing automobile technology trends could substantially impact total emission reductions and the...

Interest in hydrogen as a transportation fuel is growing in Shanghai. Shell Hydrogen, Tongji University, and the City of Shanghai plan to construct network of refueling stations throughout the city to stimulate fuel cell vehicle and bus deployment. The purpose of this paper is to 1) examine the near-term costs of building hydrogen stations of various types and sizes in Shanghai and 2) present a flexible cost analysis methodology that can be applied to other metropolitan regions.

The costs for four different station types are analyzed with respect to size and hydrogen production method. These costs are compared with cost estimates of similar stations built in California. Based on the hydrogen station cost analysis conducted here, we have found that hydrogen costs ($/kg) vary considerably based on station type and size. On-site hydrogen production from methane or methanol results in the lowest cost per kg. The higher cost of truck-delivered hydrogen from industrial sites...

This manuscript on lifecycle analysis (LCA) of biofuels for transportation has three major parts:

* I. An analysis of greenhouse-gas emissions from biofuels, estimated using the Lifecycle Emissions Model (LEM). * II. A review of recent LCAs of biofuels. * III. A comprehensive conceptual framework for doing LCAs of biofuels.

The "hydrogen energy station" is one method of hydrogen production at small and medium scales. Unlike more conventional hydrogen station designs where hydrogen is simply delivered or produced on-site with a fuel "reformer" or water electrolyzer and then compressed and dispensed, energy stations would provide multiple functions in the same facility. They would integrate systems for production of electricity for 1) local uses and/or the utility grid, 2) re-use of thermal energy "waste heat" for building heating/cooling needs, and 3) purified hydrogen for refueling vehicles.

Hydrogen energy stations can be of various types and configurations. Most designs to date are based around some type of fuel cell power plant for electricity production, with coproduction of hydrogen either by splitting the stream of hydrogen from a fuel reformer or electrolyzer (to power the fuel cell and provide electricity with one stream and to refuel vehicles with the other) or by using excess hydrogen...

One-foot resolution imagery is used to develop a detailed land cover map for part of Highway 99 in the San Joaquin Valley of California, US. The land cover map is used to model the probability of occurrence of 12 endangered or threatened species and as input to an urban growth model to examine the likelihood of development of every map unit. The combination of the two model predictions permits the categorization of every map unit with a potential endangered species richness index and predicted degree of development. Polygons with high potential endangered species richness were ranked according to the degree of development pressure. This planning approach is computationally intensive, but the input data are relatively easy to assemble, consisting of: a detailed, and fine-scale, land cover map; species presence locations; statewide climate and landcover maps; a parcel ownership map; population growth projections; and a digital map of the county general plan.

Proceedings of the ASME 4th International Conference on Fuel Cell Science, Engineering and Technology, Irvine, CA, June 19 - 21, 2006

Hydrogen can be produced in a variety of methods including steam-reformation of hydrocarbon fuels. In past studies the quasi non-dimensional space velocity parameter (inverse residence time) has been shown to be insufficient in accurately predicting fuel conversion in hydrocarbon-steam reformation. Heat transfer limitations have been manifest with reactors of different geometries. In order to achieve ideal fuel conversion, the heat transfer limitations and the changes of these limitations with respect to geometry must be considered in the reactor design. In this investigation, axial and radial temperature profiles are presented from reactors of different aspect ratios while holding space velocity constant. Using both the temperature profile information as well as the traditional space velocity limitations one may be able to develop an optimal...

This paper uses a structural econometric model to analyze the investment timing game in offshore petroleum production that ensues on wildcat tracts in U.S. federal lands off the Gulf of Mexico. When individual petroleum-producing firms make their exploration and development investment timing decisions, there are two types of externalities that they do not internalize: an information externality and an extraction externality. The model I develop enables me to estimate the structural parameters governing each firm’s investment timing decisions and therefore to assess the net effect of these externalities. According to my results, the extraction externality appears to dominate the information externality. Moreover, decreasing the lease term may increase ex ante tract value and hence government profits. The econometric methodology presented in this paper can be employed to analyze any problem of dynamic multi-stage strategic decision making in the presence of externalities.

This report provides a summary of the results of the various studies completed in the Partnered Pavement Research Program (PPRC) during the period 2000–2004. In addition, preliminary findings of investigations, initiated but not yet implemented during this period, are included. The results are based on the combined results of analytical developments, laboratory testing of pavement materials, and HVS tests of full-scale pavement test sections. Summaries of developments in the following areas are included: 1. Asphalt Mixes — Materials and Flexible Pavement Studies. These include studies of mix fatigue, moisture sensitivity, reflection cracking, performance of drained and undrained pavements, and those associated with I-710 freeway rehabilitation. 2. Concrete — Materials and Rigid Pavement Studies. These include: evaluation of long-life rehabilitation strategies, results of the SR-14 (Palmdale), HVS rigid pavement studies, dowel retrofit investigations on US-101 and the SR-14...

There are numerous studies examining the interactions between travel behavior and neighborhood design. However, little thought is given specifically to gender differences. While sex is considered in most multivariate statistical analyses as a possible independent variable, there are few studies that focus primarily on “gendered” travel behavior, as influenced by neighborhood design. There are even fewer studies that examine the differences in travel behavior among women by neighborhood type. Naturally, women are not a homogenous group, and are characterized by a variety of preferences, needs, perceptions, and behaviors.

This study is based on a survey that collected considerable data on land use as well as travel behavior, including a wealth of information on both preferences for and perceptions of neighborhood characteristics. The main questions this study addresses are: Are there gender differences in travel behavior? If so, what are the causes and the effects? Are...

Many factors have contributed to the development of sprawling suburbs in the United States over the past few decades, including the fact that suburbs offer features that many households view as advantages. However, a host of problems have also been associated with suburban development, including traffic congestion, high infrastructure costs, lack of social cohesion, and environmental degradation (e.g. Ewing 1997). Citing such problems, the New Urbanism movement has rallied for a return to more traditional-style neighborhoods—those built before World War II, with an orientation to walking and transit rather than private automobiles, and with a mix of residential and commercial land uses (Fulton 1996).

While the concept of New Urbanist communities is appealing to many planners, critics argue that Americans like their conventional suburbs and are uninterested in the features that New Urbanism offers. Indeed, assessments of consumer preferences, including their apparent choices...

A geographic information system (GIS) framework is appealing to model supply-side decisions because spatial relationships commonly used by developers to evaluate building sites, such as the proximity to transportation facilities, existing land uses, political boundaries, and environmentally sensitive areas, are defined precisely in the GIS layers. The GIS captures spatial synergisms that are lost in tabulations by traffic zone or larger forecasting districts. Further, the results are defined for individual parcels (grids). This method interfaces directly with the concerns of residents and other interest groups. Uncertainty and error in postmodel allocations from zones to parcels in existing land use models can significantly blur and degrade the relevance of forecasts made with existing models. The development patterns predicted by UPlan, a planning model, tend to be realistic and provide a basis for land use planning and evaluation. A GIS land use survey, supplemented with...

In the past five years, commercial vehicle travel has increased 60 percent on California's highways, without a corresponding increase in compliance inspection station capacity or enforcement officers. Commercial vehicles that do not comply with regulations impose significant public costs including, for example, pavement and structure damage to roads and catastrophic crashes. In response to these problems, the California Department of Transportation is investigating the potential application of detection and communication technology in virtual compliance stations (VCS) to cost-effectively improve enforcement of commercial vehicle regulations. This study begins with a description of the fledgling VCS research programs in the U.S. as well more advanced international VCS programs. Next, the results of expert interview with key officials involved in the early deployment stages of VCS programs in Kentucky, Florida, Indiana, and Saskatchewan are reported. This is followed by an analysis...

Transport activity, a key component of economic development and human welfare, is increasing around the world as economies grow. For most policymakers, the most pressing problems associated with this increasing transport activity are traffic fatalities and injuries, congestion, air pollution and petroleum dependence. These problems are especially acute in the most rapidly growing economies of the developing world. Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can take its place among these other transport priorities by emphasizing synergies and co-benefits (high agreement, much evidence).

Transport predominantly relies on a single fossil resource, petroleum that supplies 95% of the total energy used by world transport. In 2004, transport was responsible for 23% of world energy-related GHG emissions with about three quarters coming from road vehicles. Over the past decade, transport’s GHG emissions have increased at a faster rate than any other energy using sector (high agreement,...

China’s economic expansion is fueling an accelerated demand for private vehicles. While China’s growing motorization is similar to that of other developing nations, the scale of this growth is unprecedented. Personal motorization provides numerous benefits to individuals and society; however, roadway congestion, parking inefficiencies, and environmental challenges typically accompany widespread auto use in urban areas. Carsharing is an innovative transportation demand management strategy, which can offer its members the convenience and flexibility of vehicle ownership at lower cost. It has also demonstrated environmental and social benefits.

In Spring 2006, the authors implemented an 840-person intercept survey within Beijing to explore carsharing familiarity and response. The questionnaire assessed respondents’ travel patterns and needs, vehicle purchase intentions, and carsharing interest. The results indicate a potential demand for carsharing services. Over 25% of...

This dissertation examines the rise, present use, and future growth of the electric two-wheeler (E2W, a.k.a. E2W or e-scooter) in China, the world’s most successful electricdrive vehicle. The E2W market has been experiencing tremendous growth with over 30 million now in regular use on Chinese streets. The adoption of E2W technology is significant because, along with their air quality and energy (low-carbon) benefits compared to gasoline powered motorcycles, E2Ws are driving the development of improved and lower cost batteries and may lead to a shift toward larger three-and fourwheel electric vehicles (EV).

This dissertation explores three questions: why the E2W market grew so rapidly in China, what factors are driving and resisting its growth, and how future growth might impact the adoption of electric vehicles. Because these three questions intersect in any domains, such as technology, economics, industrial organization, consumer behavior (the market), and public policy,...

This study applied principles of social learning and marketing to develop a transit training video for residents of the Rossmoor Senior Adult Community in California. The video features familiar community members successfully navigating specific concerns and problems related to transit use in accessing key community destinations (shopping, health care, and the nearest San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District station). Residents were recruited to complete questionnaires before and after viewing the video to evaluate its effectiveness. Video messages that were aimed at educating viewers on how to obtain transit, cost, and payment information generated a significant and positive attitudinal change. However, respondents reported that the video did not adequately address the difficulties associated with reading schedules and climbing stairs at transit stations. Survey results also indicate a significant and positive change in respondents’ future use of a broader range of Internet-related...

The recently heightened attention to US petroleum consumption and the associated environmental and economic impacts has resulted in a resurgent interest in biofuels as an alternative source of energy for transportation. The production and use of biofuels for transportation is not a new idea and in fact has been around as long as we have had cars. The difference today is a combination of factors – economic, environmental, technical, and political – that have combined to create an atmosphere in which biofuels are viewed as having the potential to replace a significant percentage of our transportation energy needs. This paper is an attempt to understand the most significant factors that have contributed to this situation and to use that understanding to provide insight about the impact of future policies and business decisions on the market.

The transportation biofuels market in the US has grown substantially in the last few years with sales reaching almost 4 billion gallons...

The EasyConnect Low-Speed Modes Linked to Transit Planning Project (TO 5113) project represents the integration of innovative strategies to enhance transit use during the development and construction of a suburban transit oriented development at the Pleasant Hill Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) District station in the East San Francisco Bay Area. This planning project brings together a unique partnership including small technology businesses, transportation agencies, city and county government, and academia. The project components include the introduction of shared-use low speed mode vehicles and electronic lockers at the proposed TOD. The evaluation of the EasyConnect field operational test (TO 6113-the next phase of this initiative) will provide insights into whether the introduction and integration of low-speed modes and elockers at the Pleasant Hill BART station can significantly increase transit access/use and cost effectively provide a last mile solution.

Given the dominance of power plant emissions of greenhouse gases, and the growing worldwide interest in CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as a potential climate change mitigation option, the expected future cost of power plants with CO2 capture is of significant interest. Reductions in the cost of technologies as a result of learning-by-doing, R&D investments and other factors have been observed over many decades. This study uses historical experience curves as the basis for estimating future cost trends for four types of electric power plants equipped with CO2 capture systems: pulverized coal (PC) and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with post-combustion CO2 capture; coal-based integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants with pre-combustion capture; and coal-fired oxyfuel combustion for new PC plants. We first assess the rates of cost reductions achieved by other energy and environmental process technologies in the past. Then, by analogy with leading capture...

Due to increases in congestion, transportation costs, and associated environmental impacts, a variety of new enhanced transit strategies are being investigated worldwide. The transit-oriented development (TOD) concept is a key area where several enhanced transit strategies can be implemented. TODs integrate transit, residential, retail and/or commercial entities into a compact, pedestrian-friendly community, thereby reducing private car usage and increasing transit use. This research report addresses two enhanced strategies within the TOD framework: 1) using Bus Lanes with Intermittent Priorities (BLIPs) to enhance bus transit; and 2) addressing how and what Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) technology can be used within TOD system architectures. With respect to 1), it has been shown that the implementation of BLIPs for bus rapid transit can greatly increase system efficiencies without compromising the level of service for other facility users. The basic analysis in this...

This report provides an introduction to semiotics: the study of symbols and symbol systems. In particular, the report focuses on the symbolic meaning of automobiles, and explores why this meaning is important to consumers. Section 1 defines what a symbol is, identifies the types of symbols, and discusses how consumer goods (such as automobiles) can serve as symbols. Section 2 investigates how individuals use the meaning in their automobiles to form and maintain their self-identities. Several theoretical approaches (including conspicuous consumption, self-congruity theory, and symbolic interactionism) are examined and contrasted with a more comprehensive approach, called products as self-creation, which is based on the theories of Anthony Giddens, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi and Eugene Rochberg-Halton, and Grant McCracken. Section 3 explores how automobiles acquire their meaning, and how this meaning is transferred to the consumer. Finally, Section 4 examines how consumers evaluate...

During the first decades of the 20th century, a variety of gasoline refueling methods supported early US gasoline vehicles and successfully alleviated consumer concerns over refueling availability. The refueling methods employed included cans, barrels, home refueling outfits, parking garage refueling facilities, mobile stations, hand carts and curb pumps. Only after robust markets for gasoline vehicles had been firmly established did the gasoline service station become the dominant refueling method. The present study reviews this history and draws analogies with current and future efforts to introduce hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles. These comparisons hold no predictive power; however, there is heuristic value in an historical review of the first successful and large-scale introduction of a vehicle fuel. From an energy policy perspective, these comparisons reinforce the importance of a long-term and portfolio approach to support for technology development and innovation.

Interest in hydrogen as a transportation fuel is growing in California. Plans are underway to construct a "Hydrogen Highway" network of stations across the state to stimulate fuel cell vehicle deployment. One of the key challenges in the planning and financing of this network is determining the costs of the stations. The purpose of this report is to examine the near-term costs of building hydrogen stations of various types and sizes.

The costs for seven different station types are analyzed with respect to size, siting factors, and operating factors. The first section of the report reviews the existing body of knowledge on hydrogen station costs. In the second section, we present hydrogen station cost data from the Compendium of Hydrogen Refueling Equipment Costs (CHREC), a database created to organize and analyze data collected from equipment suppliers, existing stations and literature. The third section of the report presents the Hydrogen Station Cost Model (HSCM), an...

Suburban sprawl has been widely criticized for its contribution to auto dependence. Numerous studies have found that suburban residents drive more and walk less than residents in traditional neighborhoods. Accordingly, smart growth programs have been advocated as a means to reduce auto travel. However, most studies have established only an association between the built environment and travel behavior, but not a causal relationship. Their connection may be more a matter of residential choice than of travel choice. For example, residents preferring walking may selectively live in walkable neighborhoods and thus walk more. If so, the effects of land use policies may be overstated. Using data collected from 1682 respondents living in four traditional and four suburban neighborhoods in Northern California in 2003, this dissertation explored this causal link by employing a quasi-longitudinal research design and controlling for residential self-selection (namely, residential preferences...

This paper reviews the regulatory history for nitrogen oxides (NOx) pollutant emissions from stationary sources,primarily in coal-fired power plants. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is one of the six criteria pollutants regulated by the 1970 Clean Air Act where National Ambient Air Quality Standards were established to protect public health and welfare. We use patent data to show that in the cases of Japan, Germany, and the United States, innovations in NOx control technologies did not occur until stringent government regulations were in place, thus “forcing” innovation. We also demonstrate that reductions in the capital and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of new generations of high-efficiency NOx control technologies, selective catalytic reduction (SCR), are consistently associated with the increasing adoption of the control technology: the so-called learning-by-doing phenomena. The results show that as cumulative world coal-fired SCR capacity doubles, capital costs decline...

The California State Bureau of Automotive Repair uses a high-emitter profile model to direct, or screen a fraction of the vehicle fleet in for inspection and maintenance testing at test-only facilities. Reviews by the California Inspection/Maintenance Review Committee showed the high-emitter profile to be inefficient and in need of improvement. In this study, using in-use vehicle emissions data from California’s statewide smog check program, we specified a new multinomial logit model designed to improve the screening efficiency for targeting potential failed and gross polluting vehicles. Modeling results show that factors such as odometer reading, model year, vehicle make, as well as the presence of emissions control systems are significant factors in predicting the likelihood that a screened vehicle will test as a failed or a gross polluting vehicle. Comparisons indicate that the new multinomial logit model specification can predict various inspection/maintenance test outcomes...

Rising demand for parking at suburban transit stations, such as the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) District in California, necessitates strategies to manage traveler demand. To better manage parking supply, researchers implemented a smart parking field test at the Rockridge BART station from 2004 to 2006 to evaluate the effects of smart parking technologies (changeable message signs (CMSs), Internet reservations and billing, mobile phone and personal digital assistant communications, and a wireless parking lot counting system) on transit ridership and response to service pricing. Researchers employed expert interviews, Internet surveys, focus groups, and parking reservation data to conduct this analysis. Survey data indicated that the field test increased BART trips and resulted in 9.7 fewer miles per participant per month on average. Key lessons learned include that it would have been beneficial to anticipate additional time for project scoping and permitting, and fixed wayfinding...

We are developing a statewide urban growth model for California. It will be run in iteration with the California statewide travel model to evaluate major transportation improvement scenarios, such as freeway widenings and high speed rail. In addition, we will evaluate land use policies intended to provide for more affordable housing and for habitat protection. This model is uniquely capable of providing performance measures for total travel, travel delay, mode shares, economic development, wages, economic welfare, economic equity, rents paid by households and firms, energy use in vehicles and buildings, greenhouse gas emissions, vehicular air pollution, loss of agricultural lands, habitat loss, and erosion potential. We propose a framework for interpreting all of these data, based on recent advances in the theory of well-being for persons and for nations.

Station availability is a major concern when the deployment of an alternative fuel such as hydrogen is considered. Too few stations will make the network inconvenient, while too many will make the refueling network cost prohibitive. As a follow-up analysis to two station siting analyses completed by the authors for the California Hydrogen Highway Network, this report takes a closer look at the regional differences between the four main metropolitan areas in California: Greater Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, the Sacramento metropolitan area, and the San Diego metropolitan area. The purpose of this analysis is twofold: to generate a general model to assess hydrogen needs in different regions, and to apply the model to compare its results with the California hydrogen highways report. In the analysis that follows, average driving time to the nearest station (convenience metric) is used to determine the number of stations necessary for each region. By using convenience...

In this paper we seek to document what, if any, divergences exist between how experts and ‘lay’ people conceptualize the energy used in automobiles, motivated by previously-documented divergences in the home energy sector. From a total of 15 interviews with 19 individuals, we identify several common ways ‘lay’ people think about automobile energy use, and draw a number of conclusions relevant to the development of transportation energy policy.

In our informants’ minds, automobiles use gasoline, rather than a more generic form of energy, and they therefore have a difficult time comparing energy use across activities. When asked to compare their total energy use for both residential and transportation activities, informants used dollars to provide a common unit of measurement.

Our informants thought of automobile efficiency almost exclusively as fuel economy and were aware of it, albeit based on inconsistent methods and varying degrees of rigor. They measure fuel...

Hydrogen has been proposed as a low polluting alternative transportation fuel that could help improve urban air quality. This paper examines the potential impact of introducing a hydrogen-based transportation system on urban ambient ozone concentrations. This paper considers two scenarios, where significant numbers of new hydrogen vehicles are added to a constant number of gasoline vehicles. In our scenarios hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are introduced in Sacramento, California at market penetrations of 9% and 20%. From a life cycle analysis (LCA) perspective, considering all the emissions involved in producing, transporting, and using hydrogen, this research compares three hypothetical natural gas to hydrogen pathways: (1) on-site hydrogen production; (2) central hydrogen production with pipeline delivery; and (3) central hydrogen production with liquid hydrogen truck delivery. Using a regression model, this research shows that the daily maximum temperature correlates...

In this paper we examine the potential air quality impacts of hydrogen transportation fuel from a lifecycle analysis perspective, including impacts from fuel production, delivery, and vehicle use. We assume that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are introduced in a specific region, Sacramento County, California. We consider two levels of market penetration where 9% or 20% of the light duty fleet are hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The following three natural gas to hydrogen supply pathways are assessed in detail and compared in terms of emissions and the resulting changes in ambient air quality: (1) onsite hydrogen production; (2) centralized hydrogen production with gaseous hydrogen pipeline delivery systems; and (3) centralized hydrogen production with liquid hydrogen truck delivery systems. All the pathways examined use steam methane reforming (SMR) of natural gas to produce hydrogen. The source contributions to incremental air pollution are estimated and compared among hydrogen...

This paper examines past experience in controlling emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from coal-fired electric power plants. In particular, we focus on US and worldwide experience with two major environmental control technologies: flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) systems for SO2 control and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for NOx control. We quantitatively characterise historical trends in the deployment and costs of these technologies over the past 30 years, and use these data to develop quantitative ‘experience curves’ to characterise the rates of cost reduction as a function of cumulative installed capacity of each technology. We explore the key factors responsible for the observed trends, especially the development of regulatory policies for SO2 and NOx control and their implications for environmental control technology innovation. We further discuss some of the key technical innovations that have contributed to cost reductions over...

The Innovative Corridors Initiative (ICI) Business Model Analysis examines public-private partnerships designed to deploy intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies that can improve transportation system management and provide real-time information to users. This study builds on the business models proposed by industry in response to the ICI Call for Submissions (CFS). In addition, case studies examine the business models that are developing between the private and public sectors for roadside rest stop wireless Internet access, vehicle infrastructure integration, and Traffic.com, Inc. Caltrans' current procedures for encroachment and procurement are reviewed briefly to identify possible areas of conflict that may need to be resolved prior to launching future CFS-style solicitations. Planning recommendations are provided to assist Caltrans with planning for future CFS-style solicitations, including considerations regarding goals, purpose and project partners, authority,...

The “derived demand” perspective on daily travel, which has become axiomatic in thetransportation field, holds that travel is derived from the demand to participate in spatiallyseparatedactivities. The act of traveling itself is not considered to offer any positive utility, andminimizing travel time is a primary goal of all travelers in all situations. This dissertationcontinues a recent effort to challenge this paradigm by directly modeling the interrelationshipsamong travel amounts, perceptions, affections (or liking), and desires, and, in doing so, asking:why do some individuals want to travel more, and others less? By modeling quantities such astravel affection and desire, I am, importantly, first acknowledging the existence of these measuresand, second, formally quantifying their relative impact on daily travel amounts and each other.Five short-distance (one-way trips less than 100 miles) and five long-distance categories of travelare examined, specifically: short-distance...

The cost of hydrogen from biomass is not well understood due to the trade-offs between economies of scale at the production facility and diseconomies of scale in the feedstock collection and hydrogen delivery. The hydrogen delivery portion of the cost is particularly hard to understand because three modes of delivery exist with very different cost functions. In order to estimate the cost of hydrogen from biomass, it is necessary to develop an understanding of how these three stages of the supply chain will interact in an optimal system. This paper develops a methodology to optimize full supply chains for producing hydrogen from dispersed biomass resources and delivering it to the drivers of hydrogen vehicles at refueling stations. A profit maximizing model of the supply chain for use with real-world geographic information is formulated in a mixed integer-non-linear program. The model chooses the optimal number, location, and size of conversion facilities along with the fields...

Transportation is a major contributor of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. It accounts for approximately 14% of total anthropogenic emissions globally and about 27% in the United States. Growing concern regarding the impacts of climate change and greenhouse gas emissions has led to innovations in automotive and fuel technology. However, behavioral response to the newest transportation technologies, such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and fueling infrastructure, is not well understood. This paper examines the results of an exploratory F-Cell hydrogen fuel vehicle fleet study, which focused upon fleet drivers' attitudes and perceptions over a seven-month period in 2006. The study employed a longitudinal survey design, with three phases and one focus group.

There are limitations to the exploratory dataset generated from this study (e.g., small sample size, self-selection bias, and generalizability). However, the results of...

This study addresses the relationship between image and car purchases. Image, defined as the associations linked to a product or brand name (Aaker and Joachimsthaler 2000) is often cited as influential in automobile purchases. But relatively little research has been conducted into what image is or why it is important to consumers. This study focused on the image of a particular vehicle: the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV). The objective was to understand how buyers of HEVs perceived the image of their vehicles, and the role image played in buyers’ purchase decisions.

Governments in the US spend over a hundred billion dollars per year to build and maintain roads and provide a variety of services for motor-vehicle users. To pay for these infrastructure and services governments collect revenue from a variety of taxes and fees. The basic objective of this paper is to compare these government expenditures with the corresponding user tax and fee payments in the US. At the outset I argue that the such comparisons tell us something about the equity but not necessarily the economic efficiency of highway financing. I then present four different ways one might tally up government expenditures and user payments, depending on the extent to which one wishes to count ‘‘indirect’’ expenditures (e.g., on prosecuting car thieves) and non-targeted general-tax payments (e.g., severance taxes on oil). I make a comprehensive analysis of all possible expenditures and payments, and then compare them according to three of the four ways of counting expenditures...

Interest in hydrogen as a transportation fuel is growing in Shanghai. Shell Hydrogen, Tongji University, and the City of Shanghai plan to construct a network of refueling stations throughout the city to stimulate fuel cell vehicle and bus deployment. The purpose of this paper is to (1) examine the near-term costs of building hydrogen stations of various types and sizes in Shanghai and (2) present a flexible cost analysis methodology that can be applied to other metropolitan regions.

The costs for four different station types are analyzed with respect to size and hydrogen production method. These costs are compared with cost estimates of similar stations built in California. Based on the hydrogen station cost analysis conducted here, we have found that hydrogen costs ($/kg) vary considerably based on station type and size. On-site hydrogen production from methane or methanol results in the lowest cost per kg. The higher cost of truck-delivered hydrogen from industrial...

Starting from the premise that new consumer value must drive hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicle (H2FCV) commercialization, a group of opportunities collectively called “Mobile Electricity” is characterized. Mobile Electricity (Me-) redefines H2FCVs as innovative products able to import and export electricity across the traditional vehicle boundary. Such vehicles could provide home recharging and mobile power, for example for tools, mobile activities, emergencies, and electric-grid-support services. To characterize such opportunities, this study first integrates and extends previous analyses of H2FCVs, plugin hybrids, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) power. It uses a new electric-drive-vehicle and vehicular-distributed-generation model to estimate zero-emission-power vs. zeroemission- driving tradeoffs, costs, and grid-support revenues for various electric-drive vehicle types and levels of infrastructure service.

Next, the initial market potential for Me-enabled vehicles, such as H2FCVs...

Applications of new information and communication technologies (ICTs) are changing how and where we work, shop, play, travel, and in other ways live our lives. Yet because ICT development and use is in such a volatile state, many of those changes and impacts are poorly understood. This report summarizes the development and deployment of a survey instrument intended to gather information to allow better understanding of the transportation impacts of business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce. Although the business-to-business (B2B) segment dominates e-commerce in terms of the dollar value of transactions made, B2C remains important for its potential impacts on urban travel and land use patterns, including potential redistributions of retail land uses, and substantial increases of package delivery trips into residential neighborhoods.

We see an analysis of the transportation impacts of B2C e-commerce as having two components: (1) assessing the transportation impacts of a given...

After years of relatively slow growth, coal is undergoing a renaissance. Some 140 coal power plants are planned, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that the U.S. will consume almost 1,800 million tons of coal in 2030, up from about 1,150 million tons this year. In addition, while EIA’s estimates do not take coal-to-hydrogen production into consideration, several recent studies suggest that if the hydrogen economy ever comes to fruition coal could be a feedstock of choice, at least in the U.S. which has huge reserves of coal (~250 years’ worth at current consumption rates), which are relatively cheap and easy to mine.

An increase in future coal demand fuels legitimate concerns about the impacts on global climate and regional air pollution. While carbon capture and storage is often mentioned as a solution to these two problems, another impact, often overlooked, is the possibility that the current coal distribution infrastructure may not be able to...

The Biham-Middleton-Levine model (BML) is simple lattice model of traffic flow, self-organization and jamming. Recently, the conventional understanding was shown to be incomplete: rather than a sharp phase transition between free-flow and jammed, there is an additional region where convergence to intermediate states is observed, with details dependent on the aspect ratio of the underlying lattice. For aspect ratios formed by two subsequent Fibonacci numbers, intermediate states converge to ordered, periodic limit cycles (i.e., periodic intermediate (PI) states). In contrast, for square aspect ratios, intermediate states typically converge to random, disordered intermediate (DI) states. We show these DI states are very robust to perturbation and occur more frequently than the conventional states for some densities. Furthermore, we report here on the discovery of PI states on square aspect ratios, showing PI states are not just an idiosyncrasy of particular aspect ratios. Finally,...

Using structural equation modeling, this study empirically examines the connections between job accessibility, workers per capita, income per capita, and autos per capita at the aggregate level with year 2000 census tract data in Sacramento County, CA. Under the specification of the conceptual model, the model implied covariance matrix exhibits a reasonably good fit to the observed covariance matrix. The direct and total effects are largely consistent with theory and/or with empirical observations across a variety of geographic contexts. It is demonstrated that structural equation modeling is a powerful tool for capturing the endogeneity among job accessibility, employment, income, and auto ownership.

Hydrogen offers potential advantages as a future energy carrier, with respect to reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, and enhanced energy supply security. However, the current lack of an extensive hydrogen (H2) infrastructure is often cited as a serious barrier to the introduction of H2 as an energy carrier, and to the commercialization of technologies such as H2 vehicles. Because H2 can be made at a wide range of scales (from household to large city) and from a variety of primary sources (fossil, renewable and nuclear), there are many possible pathways for producing and distributing H2 to users. One of the key challenges is developing a viable transition strategy toward widespread use of hydrogen, supplying hydrogen to growing markets at the lowest cost.

We seek to improve the ability of integrated assessment (IA) models to incorporate changes in CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS) technology cost and performance over time. This paper presents results of research that examines past evidence in controlling other major power plant emissions that might serve as a reasonable guide to future rates of technological progress in CCS systems. In particular, we focus on US and worldwide experience with sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) control technologies over the past 30 years, and derive empirical learning rates for these technologies. Applying these rates to CCS costs in a large-scale IA model shows that the cost of achieving a climate stabilization target are significantly lower relative to scenarios with no learning for CCS technologies.

Climate change is rapidly becoming known as a tangible issue that must be addressed to avoid major environmental consequences in the future. Recent change in public opinion has been caused by the physical signs of climate change-melting glaciers, rising sea levels, more severe storm and drought events, and hotter average global temperatures annually. Transportation is a major contributor of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, accounting for approximately 14 percent of total anthropogenic emissions globally and about 27 percent in the U.S.

Fortunately, transportation technologies and strategies are emerging that can help to meet the climate challenge. These include automotive and fuels technologies, intelligent transportation systems (ITS), and mobility management strategies that can reduce the demand for private vehicles. While the climate change benefits of innovative engine and vehicle technologies are relatively well understood,...

Suburban sprawl has been widely criticized for its contribution to auto dependence. Numerous studies have found that residents in suburban neighborhoods drive more and walk less than their counterparts in traditional environments. However, most studies confirm only an association between the built environment and travel behavior, and have yet to establish the predominant underlying causal link: whether neighborhood design independently influences travel behavior or whether preferences for travel options affect residential choice. That is, residential self-selection may be at work. A few studies have recently addressed the influence of self-selection. However, our understanding of the causality issue is still immature. To address this issue, this study took into account individuals’ self-selection by employing a quasi-longitudinal design and by controlling for residential preferences and travel attitudes. In particular, using data collected from 547 movers currently living in...

Auto ownership is a critical mediating link in the connection between the built environment and travel behavior: the built environment presumably influences auto ownership, which in turn impacts travel behavior. However, the way in which individual elements of the built environment affect auto ownership choices is far from understood. Further, residential self-selection may confound the interaction between the built environment and auto ownership. And the absence of panel data impedes our understanding of the causal relationships. Using a survey of 1682 respondents in Northern California, this study applied ordered probit and static-score modeling techniques to investigate the causal link from the built environment to auto ownership in both cross-sectional and quasi-panel contexts. Through variable selection in cross-sectional analysis, we found that individuals’ attitudes regarding residential neighborhood and travel are more strongly associated with their auto ownership decision...

In the next 40 years, the eight counties of the San Joaquin Valley are projected to double in population from 3.3 million to more than 7 million (Great Valley Center 2006). The region faces many challenges with respect to its capacity to accommodate this dramatic increase in population while maintaining its environmental infrastructure and preserving its diminishing natural resources.

In response to these growing pressures, Governor Schwarzenegger announced in June 2005 the formation of the California Partnership for the San Joaquin Valley (Partnership) to “the economic well-being of the Valley and the quality of life of its residents” (Department of Business Housing and Transportation 2006a). This 26-member Partnership, led by the Secretary of the Business, Transportation and Housing Agency, is composed of eight state government members (primarily cabinet level appointees), eight local government members (primarily members of county boards of supervisor), eight private...

Ni nanopowders were sintered by a field-assisted sintering technique (FAST). The influence of heating rate from 90 to 1100 ◦C/min on densification and final grain structure of sintered Ni was studied. A moderate heating rate was found to be beneficial for the densification of Ni nanopowders, whereas a high heating rate was conducive to a lower final density. Very high heating rates resulted in non-uniform densification of the samples and formation of cracks during sintering. Electric field activation and possible densification mechanisms are discussed.

Hydrogen delivery is a critical contributor to the cost, energy use and emissions associated with hydrogen pathways involving central plant production. The choice of the lowest-cost delivery mode (compressed gas trucks, cryogenic liquid trucks or gas pipelines) will depend upon specific geographic and market characteristics (e.g. city population and radius, population density, size and number of refueling stations and market penetration of fuel cell vehicles). We developed models to characterize delivery distances and to estimate costs, emissions and energy use from various parts of the delivery chain (e.g. compression or liquefaction, delivery and refueling stations). Results show that compressed gas truck delivery is ideal for small stations and very low demand, liquid delivery is ideal for long distance delivery and moderate demand and pipeline delivery is ideal for dense areas with large hydrogen demand.

Since car buyers have limited experience with fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), direct study of FCV adoption is not feasible. However, consumer behavior toward other types of electric-drive vehicles may offer clues about how the market for FCVs will develop. Research on owners of hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) indicates that consumers buy these vehicles partly because of the vehicles' symbolism. Any vehicle can serve as a symbol; it can represent meanings which relate to the identity of the vehicle’s owner. This qualitative research study examines early buyers of HEVs to understand the symbolic meanings they perceived in their vehicles and the role symbolism played in their HEV purchases. Findings are then prospectively applied to the future market for FCVs. The study includes four specific recommendations to increase the possibility that FCV buyers can access and communicate important symbolic meanings with their vehicles, thus increasing the likelihood of the FCV’s commercial success.

The literature on the modeling of diffusion of technologies typically uses historical data to calibrate a model. For cases where data on the diffusion of comparable technologies are not available and where high multi-sector stakes are involved, models that use more specific information may be useful. The potential transition to alternative transportation vehicle technologies and fuels, like fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen, would be an example of such cases. We propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution. Our estimates of the time scales required for the market, particularly for the initial stages, are longer than those obtained in other studies.

Starting from the premise that new consumer value must drive hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicle (H2FCV) commercialization, a group of opportunities collectively called “Mobile Electricity” is characterized. Mobile Electricity (Me-) redefines H2FCVs as innovative products able to import and export electricity across the traditional vehicle boundary. Such vehicles could provide home recharging and mobile power, for example for tools, mobile activities, emergencies, and electric-grid-support services. To characterize such opportunities, this study first integrates and extends previous analyses of H2FCVs, plugin hybrids, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) power. It uses a new electric-drive-vehicle and vehicular-distributed-generation model to estimate zero-emission-power vs. zeroemission- driving tradeoffs, costs, and grid-support revenues for various electric-drive vehicle types and levels of infrastructure service.

Next, the initial market potential for Me-enabled vehicles, such as H2FCVs...

The United States is experiencing dramatic growth in commercial vehicle truck travel on our nation's roadway system as well as critical shortages in truck parking. California ranks first in the nation's overall (private and public) commercial vehicle parking shortage. Recent estimates of the demand for truck parking in California indicate that demand exceeds capacity at all public rest areas; this is the case at 88 percent of private truck stops on the 34 corridors in California with the highest truck travel volumes. Nationwide, shortages of public truck spaces, however, are considered to be more severe than shortages, but only 16 percent report private shortages. The truck parking shortage in California and the U.S. has a number of serious consequences that threaten our roadway safety, public health, and economic productivity. This study begins with a literature review of the commercial vehicle truck parking problems in California and the United States, available evidence...

The U.S. is experiencing dramatic growth in commercial vehicle truck travel on our nation's roadway system as well as critical shortages in truck parking. California ranks first in the nation in overall (private and public) commercial vehicle parking shortage (Fleger et al., 2006). Recent estimates of the demand for truck parking in California indicate that demand exceeds capacity at all public rest areas; this is the case at 88 percent of private truck stops on the 34 corridors in California with the highest volumes of truck travel (Caltrans, 2001). Nationwide, shortages of public truck spaces, however, are considered to be more severe than shortages of private spaces. In 2002, 71 percent of states reported public shortages, but only 16 percent report private shortages (Chen et al., 2002). The truck parking shortage in California and the U.S. has a number of serious consequences that threaten our roadway safety, public health, and economic productivity.

This report begins...

In recent years there has been significant worldwide activity in shared-use vehicle systems (i.e., carsharing and station cars). Much of this activity is taking place in Europe and North America; however, there has also been significant activity in Asia, primarily in Japan and Singapore. This paper examines the latest shared-use vehicle system activities in both of these countries, beginning with an historical review followed by an evaluation of their current systems. Overall there are several well-established systems in both Japan (approximately 18 systems, 150 vehicles, 3000 members) and Singapore (approximately 4 systems, 300 vehicles, and 8000 members). In contrast to most European and North American cities, both Japan and Singapore already have a wide range of viable public transportation modes. Interestingly, the primary carsharing focus in Japan is on business use and on neighborhood residential in Singapore. This is likely due to limited vehicle licensing and high car...

A methodology for evaluating and quantifying the benefits/ costs of converting a given High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lane into a High Occupancy/ Toll (HOT) lane is presented in this study. A mathematical programming model that seeks the optimal pricing strategy, using a logit-like choice model embedded as constraints, forms the core of the methodology. A salient feature of this study is the incorporation of equity into the planning process by imposing constraints thus enabling planners to limit the inequities in vertical as well as temporal dimensions. A HOV lane on a corridor on I-80 in the San Francisco Bay Area was studied for conversion under different objectives – revenue maximization, total vehicular travel time minimization, total passenger time minimization, total cost minimization and minimization of total vehicle miles traveled. It was found that converting the HOV lane into a HOT lane would improve the objective function in all programs except for total cost minimization....

The 2005 voluntary agreement between the automobile industry and Canadian government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles is evaluated. We analyze the likely effect of the agreement on emissions, and on use of biofuels and advanced vehicle technologies. We conclude that the impact on emissions could be far less than suggested, possibly even zero, even if automobile companies fully comply. The pros and cons of the Canadian agreement are assessed and compared with other voluntary and mandatory greenhouse gas reduction programs. Some lessons learned include the importance of specific performance metrics to evaluate progress, use of precise baseline measurements and methods, and an appreciation of the asymmetry in information between most governments and the affected industries.

Carsharing provides members access to a fleet of autos for short-term use throughout the day, reducing the need for one or more personal vehicles. Over ten years ago, carsharing operators began to appear in North America. Since 1994, a total of 40 programs have been deployed—28 are operating in 36 urban areas and 12 are now defunct. Another four are planned to launch in the next year. This paper examines carsharing growth potential in North America, based on a survey of 26 existing organizations conducted from April to July 2005. Since the mid-1990s, the number of members and vehicles supported by carsharing in the U.S. and Canada continues to grow, despite program closures. The three largest providers in the U.S. and Canada both support 94% of the total carsharing membership. Growth potential in major metropolitan regions is estimated at 10% of individuals over the age of 21 in North America. While carsharing continues to gain popularity and market share, the authors conclude...

Recent study of the history of technological change has provided better understanding of the driving forces for technological innovation, as well as quantitative estimates of historical rates of technical change. Although such results are widely used in long-term energy models to estimate future costs over time periods of up to a century, most studies of technological learning for major energy technologies are based on historical trends over time periods not longer than 20–30 years (often because of data limitations). Relatively few studies quantify longer-term (century-scale) trends. This study helps fill that gap by reviewing the history of pulverized-coal (PC) power plants, with a specific focus on the technological progress of PC boiler technology over the last century. Historical data for U.S. plants are used to develop long-term experience curves for the overall thermal efficiency of PC power plants, as well as the capital cost of PC boilers and non-fuel operating and...

Mel Webber wrote and thought a lot about cars. He frequently pointed out that cars remain the first choice for transport for most people because their convenience and door-to-door accessibility are unmatched by any other mode. However, many cities are headed toward traffic paralysis because cars are so popular. Car ownership and use continue to increase, but there is little expansion in road capacity.

The principal response of transportation planners to increasing congestion over the past fifteen years has been development and deployment of “intelligent transportation system” (ITS) technology. But the improvements produced by ITS have been minute and incremental, largely limited to managing traffic flows, reducing delay resulting from crashes and mishaps, and providing better information to travelers. For fast-growing metropolitan areas, something more radical is needed. Mel understood this challenge. He sought ways of serving the desire for personal transport that do...

Truck traffic information is one of the key inputs in the design and analysis of pavement structures. Until relatively recently, truck traffic data typically were aggregated into equivalent repetitions of a standard axle load for pavement design. The mechanistic pavement design procedures being developed for the California Department of Transportation by the University of California Pavement Research Center will make use of axle-load spectra and other more detailed truck traffic information when incremental design and incremental–recursive design approaches are used. It is necessary to develop traffic inputs in different regions in the state to support the new pavement design procedures. With the weigh-in-motion data collected in California, the truck traffic characteristics were studied for developing default traffic inputs. Traffic composition, temporal and spatial distribution of truck volume, traffic growth rate, vehicle speed, and axle-load spectra were analyzed by intensive...

This research is designed to help researchers and policy makers ground their work in the reality of how US consumers are thinking and behaving with respect to automotive fuel economy. Our data are from semi-structured interviews with 57 households across nine lifestyle "sectors." We found no household that analyzed their fuel costs in a systematic way in their automobile or gasoline purchases. Almost none of these households track gasoline costs over time or consider them explicitly in household budgets. These households may know the cost of their last tank of gasoline and the unit price of gasoline on that day, but this accurate information is rapidly forgotten and replaced by typical information. One effect of this lack of knowledge and information is that when consumers buy a vehicle, they do not have the basic building blocks of knowledge assumed by the model of economically rational decision-making, and they make large errors estimating gasoline costs and savings over...

This paper presents an analysis of the potential system-wide energy and air emissions implications of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (H2-FCV) penetration into the U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) fleet. The analysis uses the U.S. EPA MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) technology database and model to simultaneously consider competition among alternative technologies and fuels, with a focus on the transportation and the electric sectors. Our modeled reference case suggests that economics alone would not yield H2-FCV penetration by 2030. A parametric sensitivity analysis shows that H2-FCV can become economically viable through eductions in H2-FCV costs, increases in the costs of competing vehicle technologies, and increases in oil prices. Alternative scenarios leading to H2-FCV penetration are shown to result in very different patterns of total system energy usage depending on the conditions driving H2-FCV penetration. verall, the model suggests that total CO2 emissions changes are complex,...

Executive Order S-1-07, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) (January 18, 2007), calls for a reduction of at least 10 percent in the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. It instructed the Secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency to coordinate activities between the University of California and various state agencies to develop and propose a draft compliance schedule to meet the 2020 Target. This report is the first of two by the University of California in response. This first study assesses the low-carbon fuels options that might be used to meet the proposed standard, and presents a number of scenarios for mixes of fuels that might meet a 5, 10, and 15 percent standard. The second part of the study, to be released one month later, will examine key policy issues associated with the LCFS.

On the basis of a study of a wide range of vehicle fuel options, we find a 10 percent reduction in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels...

Transportation presents a substantial and growing worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emission challenge. GHG mitigation strategies can be grouped into three categories: vehicle efficiency, low carbon fuels, and travel reduction. Potential GHG reductions are very large, with varying levels of cost effectiveness. Virtually all provide large cobenefits, including energy cost savings, oil security, and pollution reduction.

The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) can play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and stimulating improvements in transportation fuel technologies so that California can meet its climate policy goals. In Part 1 of this study we evaluated the technical feasibility of achieving a 10 percent reduction in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO2e/MJ) of transportation fuels in California by 2020. We identified six scenarios based on a variety of different technologies that could meet or exceed this goal, and concluded that the goal was ambitious but attainable. In Part 2, we examine many of the specific policy issues needed to achieve this ambitious target. Our recommendations are based on the best information we were able to gather in the time available, including consultation with many different stakeholders. The recommendations are intended to assist the California Air Resources Board, Energy Commission, and Public Utility Commission, as well as private organizations...

In the face of growing levels of congestion and persistent air quality problems, planners increasingly see community design as a way of reducing automobile dependence. Because of growing levels of obesity and the attendant health problems, public health officials have also turned to community design as a way of increasing physical activity. Proponents from both camps argue that higher population and employment densities, greater mixes of land uses, more gridlike street networks, and better transit service contribute to lower levels of driving and higher levels of walking, and they cite numerous studies to support their cases. But most studies focus on the population as a whole, and few studies so far consider the ways in which the effect of community design might differ for particular segments of the population given their particular travel needs. As evidence of the complexity of women's travel accumulates, researchers have begun to explore what community design means for women,...

Environmental and politico-strategic concerns have driven the increase in policy activity related to energy that the United States witnessed in the last few years. The nature of the issues at stake and the level of stakeholder involvement result in a highly complex policy debate. The broad concern of this paper is the study of this energy-policy process and the identification of the main policy issues. Specifically, multivariate analysis is applied to data on a wide variety of stakeholders’ policy beliefs and policy preferences to identify the policy dimensions that characterize the debate over energy policy in the United States. The focus is on the policy debate over hydrogen as a transportation fuel, although many results are applicable to the debate over transportation energy at large. The analysis uses a dataset of 502 individuals from 323 different stakeholder organizations obtained via a web-based survey specifically designed for this study.

California is in the midst of a demographic transformation. According to the 2000 U.S. Census, nearly 30 percent of the California population is now foreign-born, more than 50 percent of the population belongs to a minority group, and the elderly (those 65 and older) comprise 11 percent of the population. Demographic forecasts suggest that these patterns will continue. California will continue to attract immigrants from throughout the world and will become increasingly diverse, racially and ethnically, with whites declining as a share of the population from 54 percent in 1995 to 30 to 34 percent in 2025, according to one forecast (Thomas and Deakin 2001). The percentage of seniors will also continue its upward trajectory in the coming decades, reaching over 13 percent by 2025 (Thomas and Deakin 2001). This demographic transformation raises an important question for transportation planners in the state: How can we ensure that the kinds of transportation systems and services...

The University of California Information Center for the Environment (ICE) and the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) are developing a GIS-based analytical framework to improve the effectiveness of biological mitigation throughout California. Goals include incorporating the best available sets of mapped natural resource data into the early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple projects. Incorporation of these data will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation requirements and op¬portunities, for both single-project and regional mitigation efforts.

The cost of delays and over-runs due to late and fragmented project-by-project environmental planning and mitigation in California is estimated at $75 million per year. Developing systematic GIS-based decision-support tools to identify important species and habitats, both those impacted directly by Caltrans activities and those that might contribute...

The California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) rule, adopted in 1990, is arguably one of the most daring and controversial air quality policies ever adopted. Some consider it a policy failure, while others credit it with launching a revolution in clean automotive technology. This paper is the first systematic empirical study of the policy process that resulted in the adoption of the ZEV mandate. We draw upon theoretical frameworks of the policy process, empirical data from public documents, and personal interviews with key stakeholders, to explain how a confluence of technology, policy, and political circumstances created a window of opportunity that led to the adoption of this policy. We expect the conclusions of our analysis to be useful to other policy debates that involve technological innovation. 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

This study explores the symbolic meanings being created, appropriated, and communicated by the owners of hybrid electric vehicles. As symbolic meanings are shown to be important to hybrid electric vehicle purchase and use, understanding the meanings, as well as their construction and communication, is essential for policy makers and others hoping to promote these new types of vehicles. Hybrid electric vehicles embody combinations of meanings that were previously unavailable from automobiles. Market observers who fail to recognize this struggle to explain why some people buy hybrid electric vehicles. They may characterize buyers as naı ¨ve about calculating payback on fuel economy, or dismiss owners as image-seeking environmentalists. This research belies such simplistic explanations. Through the telling and analysis of buyers’ own stories, this study takes a robust approach to understanding the creation and spread of new symbolic meanings in the automotive market. Data were...